Here's my prediction on the election, which is based on the following:

1) the polls remain neck to neck up until the election, which will galvanize significant numbers of new voters and apathetic slackers to actually make it out to vote
2) significant new voter registrations (up 60-100% over 2000, with Democrats outregistering Republicans two-to-one.)
3) continued momentum in both debate success for Kerry and news pressure in terms of poor job numbers and deteriorating conditions in Iraq

If this holds, I believe that the "Incumbent Rule" (http://www.pollingreport.com/incumbent.htm) will be reinforced - that 80% of undecideds usually vote for the challenger. The Incumbent Rule was developed by The Polling Report, and is based on an analysis of 155 final polls before an election, which reveals that, in races that include an incumbent, over 80% of the time, most or all of the undecideds vote for the challenger. They cover both general and primary elections, with both Democratic and Republican incumbents, provided by CBS, Gallup, Gordon S. Black Corp., Market Opinion Research, Tarrance Associates, and Mason-Dixon Opinion Research.

The Incumbent Rule indicates that an incumbent leading with less than 50% is frequently in trouble; how much depends on how much less than 50%. A common pattern has been for incumbents ahead with 50% or less to end up losing.

So why do undecided voters decide in favor of challengers? It seems that undecided voters are not literally undecided, not straddling the fence unable to make a choice – the traditional interpretation. An early decision to vote for the incumbent is easier because voters know incumbents best. It helps to think of undecided voters as undecided about the incumbent, as voters who question the incumbent’s performance in office. Most or all voters having trouble with this decision appear to end up deciding against the incumbent. This means that about one in four of all 155 polls actually overstated the incumbent’s percentage. Of the 127 challengers who gained more undecideds than did incumbents on election day, 78 gained 10 or more points over their stated poll percentage.

Thus, I'm predicting a neck to neck poll on the eve of the election, followed by a landslide win for Kerry that will send the neocons packing.